Quick Blips: China’s housing hubbub

by Bradley Gardner on March 19, 2012

A few big stories on China’s housing situation came out today

China’s Property Prices Post Further Fall – WSJ

Confused About China? So Is Credit Suisse – WSJ China Real Time

Conflicts between economics teams and securities teams are pretty normal. 

Chinese property *alert* – FT Alphaville

Jan-Feb stats are weird in China

I’m not yet impressed by any of this. China has an over-saturated high-end real estate market, and an under-saturated low-end market. The government has been fairly explicit about its attempts to bring down the price of housing, and it has been reinvesting a lot of its own money into affordable housing which should keep input prices buoyant. The major structural reasons for China’s real estate demand – rapid urbanization and the upgrading of older houses – is still going on.

It should also be noted that over-investment in high-end real estate and underinvestment in low-end real estate is a fairly normal phenomenon everywhere. The policy infrastructure China is trying to establish is relatively similar to what already exists in places like New York and San Francisco.

 

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Today in Grey Markets: Chris Blattman

by Bradley Gardner on March 19, 2012

Chris Blattman requests underworld connections:

My main research assistant had her bag snatched off her lap by a passing motorbike while riding a taxi to the airport in Uganda. Along with a laptop, she lost a passport and US work visa. All are replaceable, but sometimes these things are also… retrievable.

If this were Liberia, I would have a good idea where to go to make inquiries about how to buy back my passport and computer. I am not well acquainted with Uganda’s seedier side.

 

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Chinese politician suggests legalizing prostitution

by Bradley Gardner on March 15, 2012

From China Smack:

During this year’s “Lianghui” [English: "Two Meetings" or "Two Sessions", the annual meeting of the NPC and CPPCC], there were plenty of rather controversial proposals and motions that have without exception attracted the attention of the numerous netizens. National People’s Congress representative and Heilongjiang Susheng Law Office director Chi Susheng’s suggestion of legalizing prostitution stood out even more from the rest, successfully attracting our attention, once again causing a contentious collision between human rights and public morals.

My favorite comment:

Brainless, it could never be legalized.
If it were legalized, where do you expect our respected police to go find extra income?

There is a number of good reasons for prostitution to be legalized in China. Most notably 1. It’s already de facto legal. 2. AIDS. But I’m not sure how they would excuse the ban on pornography in that case.

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Yunnan hosts Myanmar peace talks

by Bradley Gardner on March 15, 2012

As far as I can tell the BBC, the Hindu and GoKunming are the only people who reported on this.

From GoKunming:

From March 8 through March 10 the western Yunnan city of Ruilihosted the third round of peace talks between Myanmar and Kachin State since a 17-year truce with the Kachin Independence Organization (KIO) fell apart last June.

The talks, which failed to yield any substantial agreements, took place three weeks before scheduled parliamentary by-elections in Myanmar on April 1 in which Nobel Peace Prize winner Aung San Suu Kyi is running for parliamentary office. Representatives from the Myanmar government and the Kachin Independence Army (KIA), the military wing of KIO, have agreed to continue dialogue.

From The Hindu:

The Kachin are one of a dozen ethnic groups that have been struggling for semi—autonomy in their territories for the past five to six decades.

Myanmar’s pro—military government, which came to office a year ago, has this year signed tentative peace agreements with Karen, Shan, Chin and Mon rebel groups but has failed to ink a similar pact with the Kachin.

“If we cannot make it in this time, we will try a third, fourth and fifth time,” Aung Thaung, the government’s peace talks leader, said. “We are determined to have eternal peace with all ethnic groups.” One of the main obstacles to concluding a peace agreement was that the KIO wanted to discuss a long-term political solution to its claim to semi-autonomous rule in Kachin State before signing a ceasefire, sources said.

From the BBC:

Meanwhile, fighting between the rebels and the army is continuing, say reports, forcing thousands of people to remain in temporary camps on either side of the border with China.

Our correspondent says reaching a nationwide peace deal is widely recognised as key to Burma’s future political and economic development.

Peace in Myanmar is a big deal to China, and a big deal for Yunnan. Expect more events like this in the future.

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Music for the Weekend: Eliza Rickman

by Bradley Gardner on March 9, 2012

Eliza Rickman’s first full length CD just came out, and I recommend it to everyone. The album contains a mixture of compositions from her earlier EP, mostly composed on Toy Piano, and a number of newly recorded songs with full piano and strings backing. The latter songs are where the album really stands out, and one ends up wishing there was a lot more of it on the CD. Compositions such as “Devil’s Flesh and Bones,” “Through an Aquarium,” “Pretty Little Head,” and particularly the title track “Oh, You Sinners,” are surprisingly layered, only really exposing themselves after a third or fourth play through.

Gothic themes permeate in the album, such as the bouncing diminished chords in the “Devil’s Flesh and Bones,” or the wailing chorus line of “Cinnamon Bone.” But its a gothicness more reminiscent of Emily Bronte than Trent Reznor. The heroines of her songs dream sometimes of being ravished by dark strangers, and sometimes of a home with white picket fences, and they do so in such a way that you imagine both dreams are one and the same. In one verse, her heroine admits to one of the many questionable romantic interests on the album that she both wants his baby and “can’t say no.” The CD begins and ends with images of roses, the first as a symbol for an aggressive and angry sort of love, the last, in a love song to a man she can’t have, evokes images of Barbara Allen and young William, with the briar and the rose growing from their grave.

Through it all, God is a sort of ambivalent force that only seems to care about what doesn’t matter. Ms. Rickman’s background – she’s the daughter of a Baptist preacher – seems to come out here. Like the hero of a Flannery O’Conner story, God doesn’t keep his promises, and sin is something perhaps to be proud of, but despite her best efforts, God doesn’t go away. He stays in the background as a constant reminder that you’re being punished.

 

Please catch her on tour if you happen to be in the area she is playing.

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Shanzai update: Fake Buses and Fake ATMs

by Bradley Gardner on March 9, 2012

The Shanghaiist gives us two examples in one article:

A former bus driver in Shenzhen surnamed Xu was laid off during a redundancy. Together with three accomplices, he purchased a retired bus, repainted it and made it look exactly like a No. 868 Bus in Shenzhen. They even stole a licence plate of a real No. 868 Bus.

Any passenger who mistakenly got on the fake bus would be charged from 50 to 60 yuan and anyone who resisted would be beaten and thrown off the bus after the bus had moved to another district.

Then, as a throw away:

In related fake news: Beijing News once reported a man faked an ATM in downtown Beijing which would give no cash but record bank cards’ number and passwords.

CCTV anchor Zhang Quanling says she once reported a fake ATM under the name of “=-China Development Bank. The “bank” located near a busy market had been enjoying a very good business until a staff of China Development Bank passed by.

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Man in China murdered over bootleg iPhone

by Bradley Gardner on March 9, 2012

Reporter learned from the police station, 29-year-old Feng had bought a fake Apple IPhone from a dealer in the street.  When he found out that the IPhone was fake he carried a kitchen knife with him to the plaza, and was looking for the crook seller in the 27 Plaza for several days. In the process of looking for the person sold him the phone, he bumped into another group of fake cellphone dealers and started a dispute with them.  In rage, Feng stabbed one of them to death with his kitchen knife.

More and pictures of the crime, at China Hush.

More on grey market iPhones. More on murder in China. Though perhaps I should dedicated a whole post to the latter.

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Today in Grey Markets: Illegal fishing

by Bradley Gardner on March 9, 2012

After the murder of a Korean Coast Guard officer by a Chinese fisherman last year, Korea bolstered its response to illegal fishing, allowing officers to use their guns more actively during crackdowns. The Chinese asked the Koreans to suspend the use of guns, complaining through the press about Korea’s “violent” crackdown on illegal fishermen.

The Dong-A Ilbo reports that Chinese officials recently referred to Korean efforts to crackdown on illegal Chinese fishing as “uncivilized” and asked Korea to refrain from further crackdowns.

The Korean official once again said, however, that while there might be a difference in nuance betweem the two cultures, it would be best for the Chinese not to use a word that Koreans might find insulting. The Chinese official said he would discuss the matter with the relevant ministries.

What exactly are the relevant ministries?

(Via Robert Koehler)

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Lauching the (International) innovation renaissance

by Bradley Gardner on March 8, 2012

Every once in a while, the Chinese government likes to reinvent the wheel. Not literally the wheel, but something already invented, which they would prefer not paying royalty fees for. China has a massive nuclear research institute largely dedicated to creating technology to replace what it buys from Areva and Westinghouse. China’s mobile phone providers delayed the roll out of 3G service so that they could launch the locally developed TD-SCDMA system. Other follies include a home-grown DVD codec, and of course AVIC, the state-run airline manufacturer.

It’s easy to scoff at these efforts whenever they pop-up. None of them have produced an internationally competitive product, and literally billions of dollars have gone to waste. We are, to a point, laughing at ourselves though, as these instances a reflection of a fundamental failure of the international patenting system, that has slowed down innovation where we need it the most. International progress developing low-cost medical care, clean energy and bringing consumer goods to the poor has often depended on not only moving goods across borders, but building innovation networks across borders. Something which conflicting and over-burdening patent laws have made progressively more difficult.

China gets a lot of the blame for this, largely because it is a country that’s good at making stuff, and bad at enforcing laws – while the government may try to reinvent the wheel, many Chinese factory owners are happy to keep on making wheels the old way, while forgetting to pay the inventor. If America has to pass one or two more patent laws to keep the Chinese from stealing our ideas, than why not?

The first half of Alex Tabarrok’s Launching the Innovation Renaissance (buy it!), provides a clear case for why the growth of patent laws is doing more harm then good domestically. Not only by creating a regulatory mess for companies trying to compile the thousands of patents used in one smartphone, but also strictly limiting access to goods needed for further development (his example is mice for medical testing), and sometimes by simply limiting access to goods with no further promise of innovation, as in the case of “business process” patents.

In the second-half he throws out a number of other policy proposals, that could turn around what is failing in America’s innovation infrastructure, running from education reform, to higher R&D spending (in exchange for lower social services spending), and most importantly, immigration reform and the expansion of markets.

The size of the book doesn’t give him enough time to do credit to all these ideas, so he only begins to draw out what could have been a very interesting discussion about the role of trade and immigration in innovation. In general how the innovation economy is becoming more Ricardian (in the comparative advantage sense). Coming back to the example I started with: China’s capacity for cost innovation is nothing short of extraordinary. The price of Chinese cell-phones have dropped so far that rural Africans can afford two of them. Chinese-made medical technology is often as much as one-tenth the price of the West, and if anyone is going to make cleantech affordable its going to be the Chinese. But Chinese ability to lower costs is often dependent on bringing high-tech components and business expertise from elsewhere. The best-selling cars which GM makes in China, for instance, are often designed in South Korea, using technology manufactured in Japan and Taiwan, and designed in a half dozen different countries. Each country is adding local experience, which is crucial to the quality of the finished product. If one looks at areas where patents are a much bigger deal though – like green technology or medical technology – cross border innovation only happens in fits and starts, despite excellent results when it does happen.

An innovation network either requires people to come to the ideas, or the ideas to come to them. With more open immigration we could bring innovation to America, and with patent reform we could better take part in international innovation networks. Currently we have neither, and it isn’t serving us well.

 

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Today in Grey Markets: iPhone smuggling

by Bradley Gardner on March 6, 2012

From Mashable:

The Shenzhen Port in China finds iPhones in odd places when people walk through customs. In the video, you will notice one man who attempted to walk through customs with 30 iPhones strapped to his waist and ankles.

It’s fairly common for smugglers to wedge iPhones in their shoes or to sew extra pockets onto their clothing to hold iPhones. But security is catching on to these tricks — and is nabbing iPhone mules left and right.

iPhones are made in Shenzhen and retail for $125 less in Hong Kong than they do in mainland China.

The few who make it to the mainland with the iPhones still strapped to their bodies resell the phones to turn a profit.

The linked video has a few nice shots of smuggling in it, though it goes to a bit too much trouble to say that “crime don’t pay,” when it quite clearly does. (particularly for Apple).

I was originally surprised that Apple did so well on the mainland, due to the relative ease of buying Apple products from Hong Kong (the computer I’m typing on was smuggled from HK). Chinese companies make a lot of products for export which are either banned in China or can only be purchased after adding high tariffs. Apple products have to be reimported with a 20-30% mark-up. Many American DVDs are made and banned in China.

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